(PUC-Rio - 2000)THE LABORATORY OF URBANISM1 For th

(PUC-Rio - 2000)

THE LABORATORY OF URBANISM

 

1          For the first time in human history, early in the next millennium, there will be more people living in cities than on the rest of the planet. Until the late 19th century, the world's urban population did not surpass 10% of the human total. In the 20th century, that percentage has more than quadrupled, and at the very beginning of the new era, almost one-half of all humanity will live in an urban area. The biggest problems and challenges of the next millennium will certainly be urban. The solutions will need to be urban too.

2          If the story will be that of the city and its discontents, Latin America will be its paramount laboratory. Latin America and the Caribbean have exceeded the global trend in the past half-century. Entering the next millennium, nearly 75% of the region's population is urban, a level rapidly approaching those of Europe and North America, up from less than 50% in 1950. Two of the five largest agglomerations in the world - São Paulo and Mexico City, with populations in excess of 16 million and 15 million, respectively - are in Latin America, as well as three other megacities, ²metropolitan areas with more than 8 million residents each: Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro and Lima. By 2015, Latin America will be the most ³urbanized region in the world, with an estimated 364 million city dwellers, four metropolitan areas of more than 10 million people, and 28% of the total population living in cities of a million or more inhabitants

3          The consequences of this astounding ⁴demographic shift, one that is almost unprecedented in its magnitude and compressed time frame, will dominate the region indefinitely. Rural Latin America is becoming little more than the womb of urban Latin America. It will be increasingly so in the decades ahead.

4          The reasons people migrate to cities are clear: economic opportunity born of greater economic productivity in the cities; and a better life than in the country as a result of access to health care and other services. Much is made of the ⁵squalid and violent conditions of the shantytowns that sprawl across the region, but life expectancy levels of ⁶urban dwellers far exceed those for rural areas, as ¹do education levels and most other standard-of-living measures.

Alberto Vourvoulias (excerpt). Time, May 24, 1999

 

In the sentence "For the first time..." (par.1), the future form is used to express a prediction. In which of the alternatives below is the future form used to express a similar idea?